Risk statement

Version 2026-09-10

One side of every market resolves worthless

Each market has two sides. At expiry one of them is worth 1.00 unit of the collateral asset per share and the other is worth nothing. Losing the entire amount you put in is the ordinary outcome for the side that is wrong. It is not an edge case, a malfunction, or a sign that something went wrong: it is how the instrument settles, and it happens to roughly half of the money in every market.

There is no compensation scheme

Nothing here is covered by a deposit guarantee, an investor compensation scheme, an insurance policy or a clearing house. There is no counterparty of last resort. If the software is wrong, if a pool is drained, if a key is lost, if a chain halts, or if the operator disappears, nothing repays you and there is no authority to complain to that will make you whole.

The software is unaudited

The market layer is vendored from an audited MIT project and used unmodified, but the contracts that read the pool and resolve the market are ours and have not been audited by anyone. Test coverage is not an audit. Treat every amount you put in as an amount you are prepared to lose in full to a bug.

How a market settles

A market names exactly one liquidity pool and settles on that pool's own time-weighted price over a window ending at expiry. The default window is 900 seconds, and 3600 seconds for a pool holding less than 250,000 US dollars, because a shorter average over a thinner pool is cheaper to move. It resolves YES if the settlement price is at or above the strike, and NO if it is below.

A market on a memecoin quoted in a tokenized equity is a market on that pool's ratio. It is not a market on the equity behind the quote token, and the two can differ by a large and persistent margin. That margin is part of what is being traded, not an error that will be corrected.

Unresolved, and when it happens

If the pool holds less than 25,000 US dollars at settlement, if the averaging window cannot be read, or if the quote token's multiplier changes during the market's life, the market resolves Unresolved. A stock split or a dividend moves a pool ratio mechanically without anyone's opinion changing, which is why that last case exists.

What Unresolved pays depends on which mechanism the market uses, and the market page names the one that applies to it. A market trading against an outcome-share automated market maker pays 0.50 per share, YES and NO alike, whatever the share cost. A parimutuel market refunds each account exactly the collateral it staked. Neither takes a protocol fee on that branch. The two amounts are the same only for a share bought at 50 cents.

Pool depth is measured against owner-set USD reference prices rather than a price feed, and a reference price that has gone stale resolves the market Unresolved rather than passing the depth floor. That is deliberate and it fails in the safer direction, but it means the operator can force a market to resolve Unresolved. The operator cannot set an outcome.

The bond paid to open a market is refunded to the opener when the market resolves YES or NO, and forfeited to the treasury when it resolves Unresolved.

Fees

2% of proceeds is taken when a position is sold and when a winning position is redeemed. It is split evenly between the treasury and the account that opened the market. A market that trades against an automated market maker also charges a liquidity provider fee on each trade, shown in the order ticket before you act.

Prices can be moved

The pools these markets settle on are thin by the standards of any regulated venue. A large enough trade can move a pool ratio, and the guards described above raise the cost of doing that without removing it. A market where the collateral is large relative to the pool is the case to be most careful about, and the interface shows the pool size next to the market size for that reason.

Nothing here is advice

No part of this interface is investment advice, a recommendation, or a statement that any market is fairly priced. The prices shown are what other people are paying, which is information about them and not about the future.

Read this with the terms and the restrictions.